What you need to know
- Our previous analyses have shown no connection between the size of a community's migrant populations and overall rates of violent crime.
- In contrast to levels of violent crime, which have declined throughout the U.S. in recent years, car thefts have surged over 40 percent.
- In this brief, we consider whether rates of car theft are higher in areas with high migrant populations.
In our past briefs, we have explored unauthorized immigration, its recent increases, and where migrants tend to settle in the United States. We've also analyzed the relationship between migrant populations within specific communities and violent crime rates. While our research wasn’t intended to suggest that migrants don’t commit crimes, available data does suggest there is no direct connection between overall crime rates within communities with higher numbers of migrants. This brief extends our analysis to consider a less serious but more common crime: car theft.
The trend in car thefts
As shown in the figure below, car thefts have surged by almost 40 percent to historically high levels across the U.S., even as most other crime rates have declined. Concerns about cross-border car theft in parts of the U.S. that border Mexico have been known for decades. This raises a question: Is this specific type of crime concentrated in areas with higher migrant populations?
Data Sources
As in our previous work on crime and migration, we focus on 57 cities that are members of the Major Cities Chiefs Association. Migrant population data is from the Transactional Records Access Center (TRAC) at Syracuse University. This data identifies 415 U.S. counties with 1,000 or more migrants involved in deportation proceedings. These proceedings include individuals denied asylum, visa overstays, or those who entered the U.S. without authorization and came to the attention of authorities. Data on auto thefts is from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting database and measures the change between 2019 and 2023 in car thefts per 100 thousand residents.
Car Theft and Migrant Populations
The figure below shows the relationship between migration and car thefts. Some city names have been omitted to allow for greater visibility of trends in the graph. While the trend line shows a very slight positive relationship between the two variables, the fact that the data points are spread out from the trend line suggests that many other local factors are at play. Some potential variables that could be contributing to an increase in car theft include variances in the availability and funding of local resources, policing standards, differences in community outreach programs, bail reform, local economic conditions, the extent of community-wide drug use and addiction, and the popularity of certain makes and models of cars.
Two notable outliers illustrate the complexity of this issue:
- Miami, FL: With the highest share of immigrants among major U.S. cities, Miami experienced the largest reduction in car thefts from 2019 to 2023.
- Boston, MA: Boston, with an immigrant share about half that of Miami, recorded the greatest 4-year increase in car theft crimes.
Another way to see this complexity is to look at communities in the chart with about 4 percent migrants. The over-time change in car thefts for cities in this range goes from declines of almost 90 percent (Tampa) to increases of nearly 200 percent (Charlotte-Mecklenburg).
It is also important to note that this data does not account for the identity of criminals who steal cars. While there have been some noted instances where the identity of those involved in a car theft have been undocumented immigrants, car thefts are a hard crime to assess by perpetrator, as 90% of all car thefts go unsolved.
Other Trends in Car Theft
A surprising driver of recent car thefts in the U.S. stems from a viral 2022 TikTok video. The video demonstrated a vulnerability in specific Hyundai and Kia vehicles, leading to a surge in thefts. The issue got so bad that 18 state attorneys general urged the federal government to order a recall. Such trends highlight the role of external, non-immigration-related factors in shaping car theft rates. Kia and Hyundai paid a 200 million dollar class action settlement for their part in selling vehicles with these security concerns.
The Take-Away
Communities with high migrant populations have slightly higher rates of auto theft – but the correlation between these factors is not fully substantiated.
Any analysis of this relationship is limited because many car thefts are not reported, few cases are ever solved, and databases do not record racial or ethnic data for the perpetrators.
In general, car theft rates appear more likely driven by local factors such as economic conditions, policing strategies, and even the prevalence of certain car models.
Further reading
Love, H. & Loh, T. (2023) The geography of crime in four U.S. cities: Perceptions and reality. Brookings Institution. https://tinyurl.com/mxup2yfb, accessed 01/12/25
Hodgkinson, T., Andresen, M. A., Ready, J., & Hewitt, A. N. (2022). Let’s go throwing stones and stealing cars: Offender adaptability and the security hypothesis. Security Journal, 1-20.
Sources
Arizona State University Center for Problem-Oriented Policing. (n.d.). Export of stolen vehicles across land borders. https://tinyurl.com/jnccu6pn, accessed 1/11/25
CBS News. (2023). Car thefts are on the rise — why are thieves rarely caught. https://tinyurl.com/26d2sf3p, accessed 1/11/25
Center for Public Policy. (2024). How one city took on rising car thefts and brought the numbers down, https://tinyurl.com/4tkct3jj, accessed 1/11/25.
National Institute of Justice. (2021). Undocumented immigrant offending rate lower than U.S.-born citizen rate. https://tinyurl.com/mvtww369, accessed 1/11/25.
National Insurance Crime Bureau. (2023). Vehicle thefts surged nationwide in 2023. Retrieved from https://tinyurl.com/2w9n8bpk, accessed 1/11/25.
Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC). (2024) Syracuse University. Available at https://trac.syr.edu, accessed 11/1/2024.
FBI (2024) Crime Data Explorer, https://tinyurl.com/5n8tyx2e, accessed 01/03/25.
Contributors
Lindsey Cormack (Content Lead) is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Stevens Institute of Technology and the Director of the Diplomacy Lab. She received her PhD from New York University. Her research explores congressional communication, civic education, and electoral systems. Lindsey is the creator of DCInbox, a comprehensive digital archive of Congress-to-constituent e-newsletters, and the author of How to Raise a Citizen (And Why It’s Up to You to Do It) and Congress and U.S. Veterans: From the GI Bill to the VA Crisis. Her work has been featured in The New York Times, The Washington Post, Bloomberg Businessweek, Big Think, and more. With a drive for connecting academic insights to real-world challenges, she collaborates with schools, communities, and parent groups to enhance civic participation and understanding.
William Bianco (Research Director) is Professor of Political Science at Indiana University and Founding Director of the Indiana Political Analytics Workshop. He received his PhD from the University of Rochester. His teaching focuses on first-year students and the Introduction to American Government class, emphasizing quantitative literacy. He is the co-author of American Politics Today, an introductory textbook published by W. W. Norton now in its 8th edition, and authored a second textbook, American Politics: Strategy and Choice. His research program is on American politics, including Trust: Representatives and Constituents and numerous articles. He was also the PI or Co-PI for seven National Science Foundation grants and a current grant from the Russell Sage Foundation on the sources of inequalities in federal COVID assistance programs. His op-eds have been published in the Washington Post, the Indianapolis Star, Newsday, and other venues.
