What you need to know
- In 2014, the Federal Aviation Administration began an effort to increase the diversity of its air traffic controller workforce.
- We assess whether the effort was successful and whether it affected air travel safety.
- Our analysis focuses on the factors that make diversity initiatives controversial: concerns that they may reduce an organization’s effectiveness and that they favor certain portions of the population over others.
This brief focuses on the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) efforts to increase the number of female and minority air traffic controllers and the potential impact the initiative may have had on air travel safety. The FAA’s diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiative is the subject of a lawsuit filed by individuals who claim they would have been hired if the FAA had not changed its hiring criteria. These individuals also claim that the FAA’s initiative made air travel less safe. Everything Policy’s analysis focuses primarily on the second claim: did emphasizing DEI compromise air safety?
DEI in the workplace
DEI initiatives are intended to produce a more diverse workforce. The concern with DEI is that these efforts may have hidden costs. Achieving diversity goals may require hiring less qualified individuals, making organizations less able to achieve their substantive goals.
Additionally, DEI initiatives are zero-sum. If an organization prioritizes hiring one class of individuals, it reduces the number of people hired from all other groups. Even if the new hires are as capable as the old ones, some people are still worse off. These people would have been hired pre-DEI but were rejected under new hiring criteria.
The FAA’s DEI Initiative
Background
Air traffic controllers direct private and commercial air traffic, both in the air and (at major airports) on the ground. Before 2014, most air traffic controllers were graduates of ATC-CTI, a program where college students are given preliminary training as part of their coursework. ATC-CTI graduates were given preferential treatment in the FAA’s hiring process.
The DEI Initiative
Beginning in 2014, the FAA changed its hiring criteria to use an aptitude test and a biographical essay. ATC-CTI graduates could still apply, but their preferential treatment was ended. Succeeding years saw a reduction in the number of trainees who were ATC-CTI graduates. However, a similar percentage of ATC and non-ATC hires completed controller training.
Impact on Diversity
Research by Everything Policy finds that the FAA’s initiative was unsuccessful for at least one segment of our population - women. While the FAA does not release data specific to its air traffic controller demographics, we collected this information from various sources, including the Professional Women’s Controllers Association and a few other organizations listed in the citation. The percentage of female air traffic controllers has remained roughly constant at about 16-18% from the 1980s until now. (Data on minority air traffic controllers is unavailable.)
Measuring Air Safety
Everything Policy researchers analyzed the impact of the FAA’s DEI initiative by looking for trends in data on aviation mishaps attributed to controller error. We focus on two indicators: near-midair collisions by commercial aircraft and ground mishaps, such as when two aircraft are simultaneously directed to the same runway. In addition to describing different events, these data differ in number and quality: near-misses are less common, voluntarily reported, and not corroborated. In addition, the data includes all reported near-misses, not just those due to controller error.
The chart below shows the trend from 2010 to 2023 in the two variables per million flights (the near-miss data ends in 2020). The vertical dashed line at 2015 identifies the earliest point when controllers hired under the new rules ended their formal training and began working in air traffic facilities.
The data shows no sustained increase in the two types of accidents after the FAA’s DEI initiative began. Ground mishaps increased before 2015 but plateaued after that. The lower rates in 2020 and 2021 are possibly due to reduced air traffic due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Near-misses increased in 2016 and 2017 but declined after, so the rate in 2020 was almost the same as in 2014. It is possible that the spike in near-misses was due to increased drone operations near airports, which were limited by new FAA regulations implemented in early 2018.
Additional data on runway incursions that include privately-owned planes and airports not under FAA control indicates that overall incursion rates increased in Summer 2023. However, this change is unlikely to reflect the FAA’s DEI initiative, since the new hiring criteria had been in place for almost a decade.
The Take-Away
DEI initiatives are inherently complex and controversial. While aiming to improve representation, they can raise concerns about potential trade-offs in organizational performance and create perceived winners and losers.
Our analysis of the FAA’s 2014 DEI initiative indicates that it did not achieve one of its primary goals of increasing female representation among air traffic controllers. Furthermore, based on the available data, the initiative does not appear to have compromised air safety.
It is possible that the new aptitude tests and biographical essays effectively identified qualified candidates, mitigating any potential negative impacts of de-emphasizing the ATC-CTI pathway.
However, a more comprehensive assessment using a wider range of safety metrics would be beneficial. The long-term impacts and any unintended consequences remain subjects for continued investigation.
Further reading
Chatterji, G. (2020) Introduction to Air Traffic Management, https://tinyurl.com/24rxn3vu, accessed 10/14/23
Hattery, A. J., Smith, E., Magnuson, S., Monterrosa, A., Kafonek, K., Shaw, C., ... & Kanewske, L. C. (2022). Diversity, equity, and inclusion in research teams: The good, the bad, and the ugly. Race and Justice, 12(3), 505-530.
Sources
DEI In The Workplace
Hattery, A. J., Smith, E., Magnuson, S., Monterrosa, A., Kafonek, K., Shaw, C. & Kanewske, L. C. (2022). Diversity, equity, and inclusion in research teams: The good, the bad, and the ugly. Race and Justice, 12(3), 505-530.
The FAA’s DEI Initiative
Personal Communication with Pamela Wilson, President, Professional Women’s Controllers Association, (2024). 10/24/24.
Lutte, R. (2019). Women in Aviation: A Workforce Report, https://tinyurl.com/ytmym8jj, accessed 10/7/24
Kinley, A. (2016). Race & Gender Changes in Air Traffic Controller Selection, Hiring, Attrition & Success 1940-2015, MA thesis. Southern Illinois University, https://tinyurl.com/y8p22awt, accessed 10/8/24
Federal Aviation Administration. (2021). The Air Traffic Controller Workforce Plan 2021-2030. https://tinyurl.com/56cbhmjn, accessed 10/10/24
Measuring Air Safety
Federal Aviation Administration. (2024) Runway Safety Statistics. https://tinyurl.com/4cddv6mu, accessed 10/15/24
United States Department of Transport. (2024). Air traffic by the numbers. Air Traffic By The Numbers | Federal Aviation Administration. https://tinyurl.com/bddd6ydh, accessed 10/3/24
Bureau of Transportation Statistics. (2024) Number of Pilot-Reported Near Midair Collisions (NMAC) by Degree of Hazard,https://tinyurl.com/3f3bfp7p, accessed 11/27/24
Ember, S. & Steel, E. (2023) Airline Close Calls Happen Far More Often Than Previously Known, The New York Times, https://tinyurl.com/ywn9znpu, accessed 11/26/24
Contributors
Olivia DiPietro (Senior Intern) is a junior at Fordham University pursuing a double major in French and journalism.
Dr. William Bianco (Research Director) received his PhD in Political Science from the University of Rochester. He is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Indiana Political Analytics Workshop at Indiana University. His current research is on representation, political identities, and the politics of scientific research.
