Deficit Reduction Proposals: Republican Ideas

Challenges in Deficit Reduction

There is no easy, painless way to eliminate the federal deficit. Critics of excessive federal spending claim that substantial savings can be found by eliminating “waste, fraud, and abuse,” in many cases those government programs are less popular or tailored to only a certain group of people. The reality is that many federal programs have a meaningful impact across the U.S.. As a result, any successful deficit reduction proposal must overcome the fact that it will reduce benefits or impose costs on many Americans.

The Deepest Cuts Under Consideration

The largest Republican deficit-reduction proposals were developed by Republican members of the Ways and Means Committee. Some of these measures reduce the deficit by generating increased tax revenue. Others cut the deficit by reducing future federal spending. The top 5 proposals based on the predicted 10-year deficit reduction are shown in the figure below.

The largest deficit reduction proposal in the list is a 10% tariff on all imports, expected to generate $1.9 trillion in revenue over 10 years. However, the risk is that increased U.S. tariffs would lead other countries to increase their tariffs on American exports. As a result, this proposal faces opposition from Republican lawmakers and constituents in communities where the local economy largely depends on imports and exports.

The Border Adjustment Tax would make two changes. First, businesses would no longer be able to deduct the cost of imported goods when calculating their taxable income (the income they pay taxes on to the federal government). Under the new policy, companies that use imported goods would pay higher taxes, increasing federal revenue but potentially increasing the cost which companies charge for certain products and services.

The second part of the Border Adjustment Tax would exempt American businesses from paying taxes on exports – sales of products and services to other countries. This measure would lower federal tax revenue. After combining the two provisions, the Border Adjustment Tax is expected to generate $1.2 trillion in new tax revenue over 10 years. This proposal failed to be enacted in 2016 because of opposition from large retailers.

The next two largest proposals would eliminate two provisions of the tax code: the home mortgage interest deduction (MID) and the deduction for state and local taxes (SALT). If implemented, these two proposals would each increase federal tax revenue by about $1 trillion over ten years.

The MID allows American homeowners to subtract interest paid on home mortgages when calculating their taxable income (the income they pay taxes on to the federal government). Given typical home values, allowing for MID may disproportionately benefit more established individuals and families, specifically those higher-income taxpayers who often own more expensive homes. Although eliminating the MID will help reduce the federal deficit, all homeowners with a mortgage would be subject to paying more in federal tax. Republican legislators decided to maintain this deduction in the defining reconciliation bill of the first Trump Administration, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.

SALT allows Americans to deduct taxes paid to state and local governments when calculating their taxable income. The Ways and Means proposal would eliminate this deduction. Currently, the deduction is capped at $10,000 per family, however, members of both parties (including Republican House members from high-tax states such as California and New York) have proposed increasing the deduction.

The fifth item on the Ways and Means list is a cap on federal Medicaid payments, coming in at a projected $900 billion of savings over 10 years. Currently, for every dollar a state spends on Medicaid services, it receives between $1 and $3 from the federal government, with no limits on total payments. The proposal would set a per-person cap on federal payments. The cap would be adjusted for inflation but not for other increases in medical costs. Over time, states with higher medical costs would have to cover these increases themselves, find ways to save money, or cut services. Republican governors opposed this change when it was first proposed in 2017.

The Take Away

There are no easy ways to address the federal budget deficit. Proposals that significantly reduce spending generate opposition because they impose significant costs on individuals and businesses.

One potential strategy is to combine several of these proposals, hoping the combined deficit reduction will be large enough to build support even from individuals or businesses negatively impacted by some of these deficit reducing measures.

As a whole, Republicans’ voting history reflects a more favorable view on cost cutting measures over Democrats. However, because not all Republicans share the same view across all federal programs, and Republicans have very narrow majorities in the House and the Senate, a few defectors from the Republican party can make enacting many of the proposed deficit-reduction proposals unlikely.

Congress, regardless of party affiliation, will need to work together, and all Americans will need to accept some level of financial pain to make any meaningful progress in reducing our national debt.

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