What you need to know
- The decline in crime at the national level may not reflect local conditions in some communities.
- For example, Policy vs Politics’ analysis of crime data from New York City shows a 20% increase in felonies since 2019 and an almost 200% increase in auto thefts.
- These data suggest there a new explanation for widespread concerns about crime: even though national averages are down, many communities are experiencing more criminal activity.
As of mid-2024, many Americans list rising crime rates as one of their top concerns. At the same time, national crime statistics show that rates of violent crime and property crime have been declining for decades. What is driving worries about crime?
Official Crime Statistics
The best data about crime in America comes from the Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) System, which collects data from local police and sheriff’s departments. The two charts below show the trend in reported rates of violent crime (murder, assault, etc) and property crime (burglary, larceny, etc.) in America over the last 30 years. Each chart shows the number of crimes per 100,000 people.
The charts show that crime rates have declined by over 50% over the last three decades, with a very small rebound in property crimes during the COVID-19 pandemic. The same pattern shows up in data from the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, which annually surveys Americans to determine if they have had crimes committed against them. At the national level, crime rates have declined, regardless of how we measure it.
Public opinion about crime
Americans believe crime is increasing. A 2024 survey by the Pew Research Center showed that 58% of Americans (68% of Republicans and 47% of Democrats) believe reducing crime should be a top priority for the President and Congress. Moreover, 77% of those surveyed believe that crime has increased in the U.S. over the last year, and 55% believe it has increased in their community.
The Pew report also notes that despite decreasing crime rates over the last 30 years, in 23 out of 27 annual Gallup surveys conducted during this time, at least 60% of respondents believed that crime rates were increasing.
Why do Americans believe crime is up when the national-level data says otherwise? One argument is that responses to questions about crime reflect partisan ties, with Republican voters saying crime is a problem because a Democrat is in the White House. However, the Pew data shows that many Democrats are also concerned about crime.
A second argument is that Americans are responding to sensationalized crime coverage on local news media and social media. There is no doubt that Americans today see more stories about crimes than they did a generation ago. However, the Gallup data suggests that something else is going on. The mismatch between declining crime rates and increased public concern about crime existed long before the Internet.
Further analysis suggests a possible different explanation for the mismatch. The outcome may be a consequence of measuring crime at the national level. When we look at local data, a very different picture emerges, one where the public’s concerns about rising crime are more aligned with what the data reflects.
Crime at the local level: New York City
For our analysis, we use crime data from 2000 - 2023 reported by the New York Police Department. The chart on the left below shows annual crime rates in New York for seven major felonies (murder and manslaughter, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, grand larceny, and auto theft). As in the national data, the overall trend is downward, meaning less crime over time. However, there is a significant spike (over 20%) in felonies from 2019 to 2023.
The Take-Away
Many observers of American public opinion question surveys that reveal the public’s high levels of concern about crime. Why are people worried when crime nationwide has been declining for three decades? In communities experiencing similar outcomes like New York City, the answer is clear: local crime data reveals a different picture, with felonies up almost 20% in recent years and auto thefts skyrocketing nearly 200%.
This data suggests a new explanation for the public’s concern about rising crime: national trends may miss what some Americans see in their local communities. Crime may be declining nationwide, but at the same time, it is increasing in many communities, leading people who live in these communities to conclude that crime rates are a pressing problem based on what they are experiencing firsthand.
Further reading
Grawert, A., & Kim, N. (2022). Myths and realities: Understanding recent trends in violent crime. Brennan Center for Justice. http://tinyurl.com/yk5vzht6, accessed 12/14/23.
Gramlich, J. (2024). What the Data Says (and Doesn’t Say) About Crime in the United States. Pew Research Center. https://tinyurl.com/2zwzk6ad, accessed 6/30/24.
Berg, M., & Lauritsen, J. Telling a Similar Story Twice? (2015). NCVS/UCR Convergence in Serious Violent Crime Rates in Rural, Suburban, and Urban Places. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 32, 61–87. https://tinyurl.com/y6bssd2f, accessed 9/10/23.
Sources
Official Crime Rates
Uniform Crime Report. 2024. Crime Data Explorer, Federal Bureau of Investigation. https://tinyurl.com/mw5k3kv5, accessed 6/28/24.
Morgan, R., & Truman, J. (2020). Criminal Victimization, 2022. United States Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. https://tinyurl.com/2ccwztmp, accessed 6/28/24.
Public opinion about crime
Gramlich, J. (2024). What the Data Says (and Doesn’t Say) About Crime in the United States. Pew Research Center. https://tinyurl.com/2zwzk6ad, accessed 6/30/24.
Crime at the local level: New York City
New York City Police Department (2024) Historical New York City Crime Data, https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/crime-statistics/historical.page, accessed 6/25/24.
Contributors
Macy Steinlage (Senior Intern) graduated in Political Science and Spanish at Kansas State University in May of 2024. She will attend law school at the University of Missouri-Kansas City post-graduation.
Dr. Chris W. Bonneau (Subject Matter Expert) is Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh, co-founder of the Pitt Prison Education Project, and served as President of the University Senate from 2018-2021. He received his PhD from Michigan State University.
Dr. William Bianco (Research Director) received his PhD in Political Science from the University of Rochester. He is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Indiana Political Analytics Workshop at Indiana University. His current research is on representation, political identities, and the politics of scientific research.
