Border Security: Are new policies working?

What are the new policies?

The measures implemented in recent months include the following:

• Increased border patrols to reduce unauthorized entries
• Increased border agents at ports of entry to reduce processing times
• People who try to enter the U.S. illegally cannot make a subsequent asylum claim
• Individuals who were found to be threats to public safety or national security are subject to expedited deportation
• Changes to the asylum process to reduce processing time
• Informal agreements with the Mexican government to reduce the flow of people entering the U.S.

These changes are designed to reduce legal and illegal border entries by (a) reducing the flow of people traveling from Mexico to the U.S. border, (b) increasing the chances that people trying to cross the border illegally will be apprehended, and (c) reducing the number of people living in the U.S. while their asylum claims are being decided.

How can we assess the effectiveness of the new border policies?

None of these changes are guaranteed to be successful. Border-crossers may be able to evade increased patrols. The Mexican government may promise change but do little or nothing. Adding personnel to evaluate asylum claims may not have the desired outcome in reducing processing times if other changes aren’t made to increase efficiency in reviewing claims.  

In addition, many changes may take time to be effective. At present, there are over two million pending asylum claims, with only about ten thousand being decided per month. Even if the monthly processing rate is doubled or tripled, there will still be millions of pending claims a year from now. Moreover, since the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) only releases asylum data annually, it will take until 2026 before we can fully assess the effectiveness of the 2024-era policy changes.  

One variable that allows a near-term assessment is monthly data on border encounters. An encounter occurs when a Border Patrol agent spots an individual trying to cross the border between ports of entry (whether or not the individual is eventually apprehended). Encounter data captures in-person efforts, but also identifications made by fixed video cameras, drones, and other surveillance technologies.  

In principle, increased patrols, penalties for illegal entry, faster processing of asylum claims, and Mexico’s efforts to reduce migrants crossing into the U.S. are designed to reduce the number of unauthorized border crossings – both by reducing the supply of would-be entrants and by increasing the costs (risk) of trying to enter the U.S. illegally. If these policies work, we should see a reduction in monthly encounters.

What is the trend in encounters on the southern border?

The figure below compares monthly 2024 encounters released by DHS with data from 2022 and 2023. 2024 data is the black solid line, while the average monthly encounters for 2022 and 2023 is a dashed line.  

Comparing the 2024 data with the earlier years reveals two things. First, border encounters in July 2024 are down by almost 50 percent compared to January 2024. Moreover, July 2024 encounters are also down almost 50 percent compared to the same months in 2022 and 2023.

The Take-Away

The data provides two insights into the effectiveness of the federal government’s recent border policy changes. Border encounters for July 2024 are at their lowest levels since 2022, and are significantly lower compared to 2022 and 2023.  

The critical questions are whether the decline in border encounters continues in the coming months and whether data on asylum claims will reflect an increased number of claims being adjudicated. The data does reflect a decline in Southwestern border encounters, but given the cyclical nature of border crossings, it will take further analysis throughout the remainder of 2024 to determine if the new policies are reducing asylum claims and illegal entries on a sustained basis.